New England Energy Infrastructure Shortfall

For the New England Coalition for Affordable Energy, EDR Group (now EBP) was teamed with La Capra Associates to develop a study of how the New England regional economy would be affected in the near-term if electricity and natural gas prices increase as a result of a shortfall in generating infrastructure or delivery infrastructure. EDR Group worked with La Capra's energy cost analysis (a cumulative $5.4 billion increase in 2014, approximately 0.1% of New England's cumulative GRP for the study interval) and the infrastructure investment short-fall analysis (valued at $9 billion in 2014, 53% of this would have benefited a combination of New England firms or resident construction workforce) and quantified the annual job, gross regional product, and personal income impacts for the region through 2020.

Notable findings from the consideration of higher energy prices:

  • In 2020 the private-sector jobs lost for the region, some 25,6000 jobs, cancel out 80 percent of the region's expected job growth from 2019 to 2020.
  • Job losses are concentrated largely in consumer serving sectors - Retail, Health Care, Restaurants, but also Manufacturing, Construction.
  • Lost dollars of gross regional product between 2016 and 2020 are $5.6 billion with 5% of this attributable to reduced export competitiveness; 68% is due to reduced consumer spending, largely the result of the residential energy customer segment bearing 40% of the cost increase burden, and 20% a result of a slow down in the general investment environment under higher regional costs-of-doing business.

Notable findings from the consideration of foregoing infrastructure construction activities between 2016 and 2019 — not building pipeline, on-shore Wind, transmission lines, and natural gas fired generating plants —

  • An average annual job lost for the region of 28,900 jobs, largely in the Construction sector (60%), Manufacturing (14%), and Retail (10%).
  • Cumulative GRP loss worth $10.5 billion.