For Michigan DOT, EBP (formerly EDR Group) is part of the team developing the 2045 State Long-Range Transportation Plan (SLRTP), which includes the state freight, rail and comprehensive multi-modal plans. The 2045 SLRTP will incorporate scenario elements for policy-based, vision-based, needs-based, fiscally realistic, and strategic directions.
Phase 1. The first phase provided research and process guidelines for development of the plan, with stakeholder engagement. EBP was responsible for leading the reviewing socioeconomics trends and forecasts, and for providing the approach to be used in assessing the economic benefits for initiatives to be recommended by the plan. EBP also worked with team members to identify trends in commodity movements and trade flows as part of the rail and freight components of the plan. To support future scenario development, EBP provided key support for identification of activity centers and statewide corridors of significance and prepared reviews of best practices and tools for scenario planning. EBP also provided insights into the impact of new technologies and resilience planning tasks in support of these new and innovative elements of the statewide plan.
Phase 2. In Phase 2, currently underway, EBP is leading the baseline trends task, which outlines to influence of demographic, economic, technology, spatial development, and health trends on long-term transportation needs in Michigan. This includes development of a special research section relating near and mid-term trends from COVID-19 to potential long-term economic and transportation behavioral shifts. EBP is also leading the research and implementation of alternative economic and technology futures scenarios for risk testing in the Michigan statewide travel model. This includes consideration of key sources of uncertainty including the pace of economic growth, urban-rural location decisions, e-commerce, telecommuting, and the pace of CAV adoption. Exploring these alternative exogenous futures will allow decision-makers within Michigan DOT better understands risks of over- and under-investment and prepare for a dynamic future in Michigan transportation policies and investments. In upcoming work, EBP will collaborate with MDOT staff to assess the economic benefits of planned transportation investments.